Are Natural Disasters Increasing? What 10 Years of Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Floods and Wildfires Tell Us
Natural disasters can make almost any year feel unprecedented. One year brings devastating hurricanes. Another produces record wildfires, floods or tornado outbreaks.
But what happens when we stop looking at individual storms and examine an entire decade?
Data covering 2016 through 2025 reveals an important trend: the United States experienced substantially more billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the second half of the decade than during the first half.
The causes are more complicated than simply saying, “The oceans are getting warmer, so there are more disasters.”
Ocean temperatures matter enormously, but so do El Niño and La Niña, atmospheric circulation, drought, soil moisture, wind patterns, population growth and the increasing amount of property located in vulnerable areas.
Here is what the last 10 years tell us.
Natural Disasters in the United States: 2016–2025
For this comparison, we use the U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database. Events are counted when losses reach at least $1 billion after adjusting for inflation.
Across 2016–2025, there were 202 billion-dollar disasters, costing approximately $1.6 trillion in inflation-adjusted losses. Severe storms accounted for 129 events, tropical cyclones 29, floods 17, wildfires 10, droughts nine, winter storms seven and freezes one.
| Rank | Year | Total $1B+ Disasters | Severe Storms* | Hurricanes / Tropical Cyclones | Floods | Wildfires | Approx. Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2023 | 28 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 1 | $100.9B |
| 2 | 2024 | 27 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | $193.6B |
| 3 | 2025 | 23 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | $118.4B |
| 4 | 2020 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 1 | $127.5B |
| 5 | 2021 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | $174.1B |
| 6 | 2017 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | $417.7B |
| 7 | 2022 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | $194.3B |
| 8 | 2018 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | $122.9B |
| 9 | 2016 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | $64.8B |
| 10 | 2019 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | $58.8B |
*NOAA/Climate Central's “severe storm” category includes damaging thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail and high-wind events. Costs are CPI-adjusted to 2026 dollars.
The trend becomes clearer when the decade is divided into two periods.
From 2016–2019, the United States averaged about 16 billion-dollar disasters per year. From 2020–2025, the average jumped to 23 per year.
That is roughly a 44% increase in annual billion-dollar disaster frequency between those two periods.
However, disaster counts do not tell the entire story. A hurricane striking a densely populated coastline can cause dramatically more damage than several tornado or hail events combined. That is why 2017, with 19 billion-dollar disasters, remains by far the most expensive year of this 10-year period at roughly $418 billion in inflation-adjusted losses.
The Natural Disaster Trend
The annual numbers show a noticeable upward shift:
2016 → 15
2017 → 19
2018 → 16
2019 → 14
2020 → 22
2021 → 20
2022 → 18
2023 → 28
2024 → 27
2025 → 23
The three highest disaster counts in this decade occurred consecutively in 2023, 2024 and 2025.
Climate Central reports that these three years had 28, 27 and 23 billion-dollar disasters, respectively.
But why?
One place to look is the ocean.
Warmer Oceans vs. Colder Oceans
Ocean temperatures affect the atmosphere above them. Warmer water increases evaporation and provides additional moisture and energy that can influence storms.
At the same time, the Pacific Ocean periodically moves between El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.
El Niño occurs when parts of the tropical Pacific become unusually warm. La Niña represents the opposite phase, when those waters become cooler than normal.
These cycles typically occur every two to seven years and can alter weather patterns around the world.
The past decade included several dramatic shifts:
| Year | General Pacific Pattern | Important Weather Connection |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Strong El Niño → La Niña | Wetter southern U.S.; transition later in year |
| 2017 | Neutral → La Niña | Favorable Atlantic hurricane environment |
| 2018 | La Niña → El Niño | Shifting storm tracks |
| 2019 | Weak El Niño → Neutral | Variable U.S. precipitation patterns |
| 2020 | Neutral → strong La Niña | Extremely active Atlantic hurricane season |
| 2021 | La Niña | Drought/wildfire risk in West; active Atlantic |
| 2022 | La Niña | Continued Western drought; hurricane risk |
| 2023 | La Niña → strong El Niño | Major transition in global circulation |
| 2024 | El Niño → cooler/La Niña-like conditions | Active Atlantic hurricane season |
| 2025 | Neutral/weak La Niña conditions | Record-level severe-storm losses |
NOAA's historical ENSO measurements clearly show these cycles, including the prolonged La Niña period from 2020 through early 2023 and the rapid transition toward strong El Niño conditions later in 2023.
La Niña and Hurricanes
One of the clearest relationships involves Atlantic hurricanes.
El Niño tends to increase upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic. This creates vertical wind shear, which can disrupt developing hurricanes.
La Niña frequently does the opposite.
NOAA explains that La Niña can create atmospheric conditions more favorable for Atlantic hurricane development, while El Niño generally suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.
Look at 2020.
The Pacific shifted toward a strong La Niña, and the United States experienced seven separate billion-dollar tropical cyclone disasters—the highest number in the decade.
That does not mean La Niña “caused” those hurricanes. Rather, it helped establish atmospheric conditions favorable to an unusually active season.
Warmer Oceans and Stronger Hurricanes
ENSO is only part of the ocean story.
The overall ocean has also accumulated enormous amounts of heat.
NOAA reports that global ocean heat content reached another record high in 2025. Over the past half-century, the oceans have absorbed nearly 90% of the excess energy trapped in Earth's climate system.
Warm ocean water is essentially hurricane fuel.
A hurricane extracts heat and moisture from the ocean. When other atmospheric conditions are favorable, unusually warm water can support rapid intensification and heavier rainfall.
That does not necessarily mean warmer oceans produce more hurricanes every year. Atmospheric wind shear, Saharan dust, humidity and other factors still determine whether storms form.
Instead, warmer oceans can increase the potential intensity and rainfall of storms that do develop.
What About Flooding?
Flooding has an equally important relationship with temperature.
Warmer air can hold more water vapor. More atmospheric moisture creates the potential for heavier rainfall when storms develop.
El Niño can also shift the Pacific jet stream southward, making parts of the southern United States wetter and increasing flood risk. La Niña often shifts the pattern northward, producing wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest while increasing drought risk across parts of the southern U.S.
The disaster data illustrates how variable flooding can be.
There were four billion-dollar floods in 2016, three in 2019, four in 2023—but none independently classified in 2020 or 2025.
That is a reminder that climate patterns affect where and when extreme rainfall occurs rather than creating a simple linear increase every year.
What About Wildfires?
Wildfires have a more indirect connection to ocean cycles.
An ocean temperature anomaly does not ignite a forest.
Instead, large-scale climate patterns can change precipitation, temperature, snowpack and drought. Those conditions influence how dry vegetation becomes.
A wet season may initially encourage vegetation growth. If followed by prolonged heat and drought, that additional vegetation can eventually become fuel.
La Niña frequently brings warmer and drier conditions to parts of the southern United States, while regional ocean and atmospheric patterns can contribute to drought elsewhere.
Long-term warming can amplify the effect by increasing evaporation and drying vegetation more rapidly.
Interestingly, the billion-dollar dataset recorded one major wildfire disaster in every year from 2016 through 2025.
That consistency is striking.
What About Tornadoes?
Tornadoes are more complicated.
There is no simple equation saying warmer ocean = more tornadoes.
Tornado outbreaks require a particular combination of atmospheric instability, moisture, lift and wind shear.
Large climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña can alter the jet stream and Gulf moisture, potentially shifting the location and timing of severe thunderstorms.
But tornado activity varies tremendously from year to year.
For this reason, scientists are generally much more confident about the relationship between warming and extreme heat or heavy rainfall than they are about long-term changes in tornado frequency.
What is obvious in the economic data is the rise in damaging severe-storm events.
The decade produced 129 billion-dollar severe-storm disasters, representing almost 64% of all billion-dollar disasters from 2016 through 2025.
And in 2025 alone, there were 21 billion-dollar severe-storm events, the highest annual total in the database.
Is There a Natural Disaster Cycle?
Yes—but it is not one simple cycle.
The best-known short-term cycle is ENSO: El Niño and La Niña.
NOAA says these phases generally recur every two to seven years, although they are irregular.
The pattern can create something resembling a disaster cycle:
El Niño → shifting storm tracks and wetter southern conditions → transition → La Niña → increased Atlantic hurricane potential and drought in parts of the South/West → neutral conditions → next cycle.
But that natural oscillation now operates on top of a warmer climate system.
That distinction is important.
El Niño and La Niña have existed for thousands of years. They are not themselves caused simply by modern climate change.
However, the background ocean and atmosphere in which these cycles operate are warmer than they were decades ago.
Are Natural Disasters Actually Increasing?
If the measurement is U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, the answer from the historical data is clear: the frequency has risen substantially.
During the 1980s, the United States averaged approximately 3.3 billion-dollar disasters per year.
During the 1990s: 5.7.
During the 2000s: 6.7.
During the 2010s: 13.1.
And from 2020 through 2025: 23 per year.
That does not mean climate change alone caused the entire increase.
Several forces are occurring simultaneously.
There are more people, homes and businesses in disaster-prone areas. Property values and replacement costs have risen. Development has expanded along coastlines and into wildfire-prone areas. Meanwhile, changes in temperature, precipitation and ocean heat can affect the severity or probability of certain weather extremes.
Economic exposure and physical climate hazards therefore combine to determine the final disaster cost.
The Biggest Lesson From the Last 10 Years
Perhaps the most interesting conclusion is that there is no single “natural disaster season.”
Different ocean and atmospheric conditions shift risk from one hazard to another.
A strong El Niño can suppress Atlantic hurricanes while increasing heavy rainfall elsewhere.
La Niña can increase Atlantic hurricane potential while contributing to drought in parts of the southern United States.
Warmer ocean temperatures can provide additional energy and moisture for tropical cyclones.
Hotter and drier landscapes can create more favorable wildfire conditions.
And atmospheric moisture can increase the potential for extreme rainfall.
The result is a complicated system where warmer oceans, cooler Pacific cycles, atmospheric circulation and long-term climate trends interact rather than operate independently.
What the numbers do show is that the United States has entered a period in which billion-dollar weather disasters occur far more frequently than they did several decades ago.
The next question is not simply whether there will be another hurricane, tornado, flood or wildfire.
It is where the next cluster of extreme events will occur—and what the ocean and atmosphere may be telling us before it happens.
